How the Houthis Have Become the Iran War's Wildcard That Nobody Can Stop

The Houthis are still firing missiles at ships and Gulf states despite the US-Israeli campaign against Iran. Here is why they cannot be stopped and what it means for the conflict.

The strategic hypothesis that the US-Israeli campaign against Iran would cripple the Houthi movement in Yemen by destroying its command and logistics networks has been tested by five weeks of operational reality and found to be, at best, partially correct.

Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea continue. Houthi missile and drone launches against Gulf state targets — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and through longer-range systems, Israeli territory — have continued throughout the campaign. The scale and accuracy of these attacks has, by some assessments, diminished compared to pre-war levels, which is consistent with some disruption to Iranian logistics and command. But diminished is not stopped, and continued Houthi activity even at reduced intensity is sufficient to maintain the security risk that is keeping major shipping companies away from the Red Sea route.

The reason the Houthis cannot be stopped by degrading their Iranian patron is structural. The Houthi movement has spent the past decade building, with Iranian assistance, indigenous weapons manufacturing capabilities that do not depend on continuous resupply. Drones built in Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory from locally-sourced components. Ballistic missile systems that use propellant formulations that can be produced in Yemen. A maintenance infrastructure for precision guidance systems that can function, at reduced efficiency, without ongoing Iranian technical support.

This indigenous capability is what makes the 'cut the head, kill the snake' theory of the US-Israeli campaign strategically incomplete as applied to the Houthi dimension of Iranian proxy power. The head of the snake — Iranian central command and logistics — was always partially separated from the Houthi body, which had its own operational autonomy and its own survival instincts. Killing the head diminishes the Houthis but does not end them.