The Iran War Is Changing How Europe Heats Its Homes — The Energy Crisis Nobody Prepared For

The Hormuz blockade has cut European LNG supply and heating costs are rising. Here is who is most affected, what governments are doing, and whether a second energy crisis is arriving.

The specific European energy security narrative between 2022 and 2024 was about reducing dependence on Russian natural gas — a transition that involved building LNG import terminals, diversifying suppliers, and the specific economic costs of paying the premium that LNG commands over pipeline gas. That transition is now being tested by the Iran war's Hormuz blockade, which has reduced availability from the Gulf LNG exporters — particularly Qatar — who replaced Russian supply.

For the specific European vulnerability: Germany's LNG import dependency, after the 2022 sprint to build receiving terminals, is partially concentrated in Qatari supply whose normal transit route passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Norwegian North Sea gas supply — which has been Europe's largest single non-Russian source — is constrained by specific production and pipeline capacity that cannot cover the Qatari shortfall completely.

For household heating: European natural gas prices at approximately 60 percent above pre-war levels translate directly into household energy bills whose increase is most acutely felt in northern European countries where natural gas heating is prevalent. German households paying approximately €80-120 per month more for heating than before the war; UK households whose specific gas bill increases depend on the specific tariff protection that the energy price cap provides.

For the governments' specific response: emergency energy measures being discussed include the specific strategic gas storage release options (European countries entered the winter with historically high storage levels), demand reduction guidance, and the specific diplomatic engagement with alternative LNG suppliers whose physical capacity is limited by specific liquefaction and shipping constraints.

For the second crisis characterisation: the 2022 European energy crisis was primarily driven by supply route disruption. The 2026 situation is driven by the same mechanism but from a different geographic source whose resolution depends on a geopolitical conflict whose timeline is not under European control.