The Turkish Drone Industry Just Became the World's Second Largest After the Iran War

Turkey's drone exports have exploded since the Iran war began. Here is how Baykar's Bayraktar family became the most-ordered military drone globally and what this means geopolitically.

Turkey's Baykar company — the manufacturer of the Bayraktar TB2 combat drone that achieved global recognition through its effectiveness in Ukraine, Libya, and several other conflict theatres — has received export orders since February 28 that have made it the second-largest military drone exporter in the world by order value, behind only the United States.

The Iran war's specific contribution to this expansion: every country in the Middle East and periphery that has observed the drone warfare dimensions of the Iran conflict — the Iranian Shahed-136 attacks, the Ukrainian counter-drone operations, the specific effectiveness of armed drones in the surveillance and strike roles — has accelerated their own drone acquisition programmes. Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 and its successor TB3, along with the larger Akinci, provide the specific combination of range, endurance, and weapons payload that the current market requires.

For the specific order volume: Saudi Arabia has ordered 100 additional TB2s beyond its existing fleet. The UAE has ordered 50. Poland has received its ordered TB2s and is ordering additional units. Several African and Southeast Asian states have placed initial orders following the war's demonstration of drone warfare effectiveness.

For Turkey's geopolitical dimension: the specific combination of being a NATO member that manufactures world-class military drones and sells them to countries across the political spectrum — including countries in tension with both the US and Russia — gives Turkey a specific leverage position that its traditional role as an alliance member managing two great power relationships has not previously generated.

For the drone warfare doctrine that the Iran war is writing: the specific lessons of the conflict — about the relationship between drone volume and air defence saturation, about the vulnerability of specific drone navigation systems to electronic warfare, about the effectiveness of loitering munitions versus standoff strike drones — will shape the next generation of drone programmes whose procurement decisions are being made in capitals around the world right now.