The Weapons Ukraine Is Running Out of — and the European Production Lines That Can't Keep Up

Ukraine faces critical shortages of specific weapons categories as Russian attacks intensify. Here is what Europe is trying to produce faster — and why it is so difficult.

The ammunition crisis that Ukrainian forces face is well-documented and has been reported extensively. What receives less attention is the specific geography and sociology of the European industrial capacity that is supposed to address it, and why the gap between political commitment and actual delivery has been so persistent.

The most acute shortage is 155mm artillery shells — the standard calibre for the howitzers that dominate land artillery across NATO systems. Ukraine fires approximately 5,000-8,000 of these shells per day in active combat operations. European production capacity, as of early 2024 when the shortage became a public crisis, was approximately 300,000 rounds per month — enough for fewer than half a day's expenditure. The EU's stated target of 1 million rounds by end of 2024 was not achieved. The revised target of 2 million rounds by end of 2025 was partially achieved, but still short of requirements.

The production scaling problem is structural, not merely one of political will. 155mm shell production requires specific machine tool types — large-calibre CNC lathes, precision boring machines — that take 18-24 months to manufacture from order. It requires propellant chemistry facilities with specific safety requirements that cannot be expanded rapidly without new construction. It requires skilled workers who have been trained over years in munitions manufacturing.

Rheinmetall's production ramp-up has been the most impressive industrial response to the challenge, and the company's stock price reflects the market's assessment of its ability to deliver. But even Rheinmetall's expansion — multiplying its 155mm capacity by a factor of eight — is still insufficient to meet the combination of Ukrainian combat requirements and NATO stockpile replenishment needs that constitutes the total demand.

The gap between what Ukraine needs and what Europe can currently deliver is one of the most consequential unsolved problems in European security.