Belarus: Freed Activist Warns EU to Talk to Lukashenko or Face Putin

A Belarusian activist recently released from detention urges EU policymakers to engage with the Lukashenko regime rather than cede Belarus entirely to Russian influence.

'Talk to Lukashenko or Face Putin': A Freed Belarus Activist's Uncomfortable Advice

A Belarusian activist who was recently released from detention in Belarus arrived in Brussels this week with an uncomfortable message for EU policymakers: engage with Alexander Lukashenko's government, however repugnant its human rights record, or risk ceding Belarus entirely to Vladimir Putin's sphere of influence in a way that would significantly worsen European security. The activist's call, reported by Euronews on March 27, challenges the EU's current strategy of comprehensive non-engagement with Minsk — a policy that has been consistent in its moral stance but arguably counterproductive in its practical effects.

The argument made by the freed activist reflects a strand of thinking among some Belarus analysts who argue that Putin's absorption of Belarusian sovereignty — through the Union State mechanisms, military basing agreements, and deep economic integration — has advanced precisely because Western isolation gave Lukashenko no alternative partner and no incentive to maintain even a nominal distance from Moscow. By the time the 2020 election crisis erupted and the EU imposed sanctions, the structural conditions for Belarusian independence had already been substantially undermined.

The EU's position has been to support the Belarusian democratic opposition in exile and refuse to legitimise Lukashenko through formal engagement. This approach has moral clarity but limited practical leverage. Tikhanovskaya and the democratic movement command widespread sympathy but are based outside the country and cannot enforce political change from abroad. Meanwhile, Russian military infrastructure continues to expand in Belarus, and the economic integration of the two countries has deepened substantially since 2020.