Goldman Sachs Raises TTF Gas Forecast to €72/MWh for Q2 as Europe Faces Storage Crisis

The investment bank warns TTF could reach €89-155/MWh in adverse scenarios as Europe scrambles to attract LNG away from competing Asian buyers.

Goldman Raises European Gas Forecast to €72/MWh: The Summer of Energy Anxiety Begins

Goldman Sachs raised its second-quarter 2026 TTF natural gas price forecast to €72 per megawatt-hour from its previous estimate of €63 in a research note dated March 22, 2026 — a revision that reflects the bank's assessment that the Iran war's impact on European energy supply will be more sustained and more severe than initially modelled. The bank simultaneously published a set of scenario analyses that illustrate the range of possible outcomes depending on how long Hormuz energy flows remain disrupted.

In the bank's baseline scenario, European storage will need to attract LNG cargoes aggressively away from competing Asian buyers to fill adequately before next winter, requiring TTF to remain elevated enough relative to Asian LNG benchmarks to make European destinations commercially preferable for cargo owners. This competitive dynamic has historically driven sharp price moves in LNG markets, as the swing in global cargo routing can happen quickly when price signals are sufficiently strong.

The adverse scenario — in which Hormuz flows remain depressed for ten weeks rather than six — could push the Summer 2026 TTF average above €89 per MWh according to Goldman's modelling. A severely adverse scenario incorporating greater long-term damage to Qatari export infrastructure or an escalation of the conflict that further disrupts regional energy production could see TTF prices above €100 per MWh throughout the summer months. Ole Hvalbye from Swedish bank SEB has placed even sharper estimates on the extreme scenario: between €115 and €155 per MWh in a sustained three-month Hormuz closure, representing a scenario that would push European energy bills and industrial costs to levels that would trigger significant economic damage and potentially political instability across the continent.