Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Making the Connection

March 2026 European heat wave climate change connection

When Seville recorded its highest-ever March temperature of 35. 2 degrees Celsius on March 27, 2026, many people asked the obvious question: is this climate change?

The answer from scientists is nuanced. No single weather event can be directly and exclusively attributed to climate change.

However, this does not mean the two things are unconnected. Scientists use a technique called 'attribution science' to calculate how much more likely a specific weather event is because of human-caused climate change.

In most cases of extreme heat in Europe, attribution studies show that such events are two to four times more likely to occur in the current climate than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate. The warming of the Mediterranean region is well-documented.

Average temperatures in the region have risen approximately 1. 5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times — faster than the global average.

This means that heat events that were previously very rare now occur more frequently. And events that were previously impossible — like 35-degree temperatures in Seville in March — are now, while still unusual, plausible.

Climate scientists also note that the impact of extreme heat events is greater than temperature alone suggests. Record March temperatures cause early flowering that makes crops vulnerable to April frosts.

They dry out vegetation earlier, increasing wildfire risk. They push energy systems to use air conditioning weeks before normal, increasing demand when storage is already low.