The Real Cost of the Iran War on European Families — Month by Month Projections

Here are month-by-month projections for what the Iran war's energy impact will cost European families through the rest of 2026, based on current market data.

The abstract numbers of wholesale gas markets and geopolitical scenarios become something different when they are converted into the specific currency of household budgets: monthly bills, food costs, fuel expenses, and the choices that families make when income does not cover outgoings.

Based on current market pricing and standard transmission-time assumptions — the period between when wholesale prices change and when those changes show up in retail bills — here is a realistic projection of what the Iran war's energy impact will cost a median European household across the major economies.

In Germany, a median household spending approximately €280 per month on combined energy (gas heating, electricity, transport fuel) should expect to see that figure rise to approximately €340-380 by June, assuming TTF remains in the €60-75 per MWh range that Goldman Sachs projects. That represents an additional annual cost of approximately €720-1,200 — significant but manageable for median-income households, more serious for those already in energy poverty.

In Spain, the government's VAT reduction has cushioned the blow substantially. Spanish households face a smaller proportional increase — estimated 15-22 percent rather than the 25-35 percent that would apply without the measure — but the underlying price dynamic is the same.

In Poland, where energy costs as a proportion of household budgets are higher than in Western Europe and where government fiscal capacity for support is more constrained, the projections are more concerning. Median household energy costs could rise by 30-45 percent by summer, depending on how quickly wholesale prices pass through to regulated retail tariffs.

In the UK, the situation is complicated by the energy price cap mechanism that limits the rate at which wholesale prices can be passed to consumers. The cap will almost certainly be reset upward at its next quarterly review, meaning UK household bills will rise significantly in July — but the timing and magnitude depend on Ofgem decisions that have not yet been taken.

These projections assume no catastrophic escalation of the Hormuz situation. If the strait remains substantially restricted beyond May, every number in this analysis gets materially worse.