Europe's Worst Gas Crisis Since 2021: Dutch TTF Surges 70% in a Single Month

European gas prices have rocketed from €38 to €54 per MWh in March 2026 alone, with storage at dangerously low levels as the Iran war squeezes supply.

Europe's Worst Gas Crisis Since 2021: Dutch TTF Surges 70% in March

Europe is sleepwalking toward its most serious natural gas crisis since 2021, with the benchmark Dutch TTF price rocketing from €38 per megawatt-hour at the start of March 2026 to €54 by March 24 — a 70 percent increase that makes this month the strongest single-month jump in European gas prices since September 2021. That number carries consequences far beyond energy trading floors: it is reshaping household energy bills, corporate production costs, and the political calculus of every government from Lisbon to Warsaw.

The continent entered this crisis already vulnerable. Underground gas storage across Europe stood at just 28.4 percent capacity — equivalent to 325 terawatt-hours — as of March 24, according to Kyos European Gas Analytics. That figure sits five percentage points below the same date last year and well beneath the five-year seasonal average. Germany is among the most exposed major economies, with its storage facilities only 22.3 percent full, down nearly seven percentage points year-on-year. France is similarly positioned at 22.1 percent. The Netherlands presents the starkest picture on the continent: Dutch storage has fallen to just 6 percent, or 9 terawatt-hours — less than a third of last year's level and well below the historical minimum for this point in the calendar.

Goldman Sachs, in a research note dated March 22, raised its second-quarter 2026 TTF forecast to €72 per MWh from €63, warning that Europe will need to attract LNG cargoes away from competing Asian buyers to adequately fill storage ahead of next winter. An adverse scenario — in which Hormuz energy flows remain suppressed for ten weeks rather than six — could push Summer 2026 TTF above €89 per MWh. A severely adverse scenario incorporating lasting damage to Qatari export infrastructure could see prices above €100 per MWh throughout the summer months. SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye warns that in a three-month Hormuz closure scenario, front-month TTF could range between €115 and €155 per MWh.

The inflationary pass-through is already visible. Goldman Sachs expects eurozone headline inflation to jump to 2.7 percent year-on-year in March, driven almost entirely by the energy component swinging from minus 3.1 percent to plus 5.9 percent year-on-year in a single month. Germany faces a diesel price shock of roughly 25 percent month-on-month as of late March, while Spain has partially cushioned the blow by halving VAT on most energy sources. The ECB's window for credibly claiming it was on track to its 2 percent inflation target has closed abruptly.